recent Gallup poll showed Democrats’ lead over Republicans with black voters “has shrunk by nearly 20 points over the past three years,” and their lead among Hispanics has dropped “nearly as much.” Gallup found that 66 percent of non-Hispanic black adults identify as Democrat or lean-Democrat, while 47 percent of Hispanics do. Both are enormous drops from 2020 exit polling, which showed 87 percent of blacks and 65 percent of Hispanics voting for Biden.
Far bigger than just a loss of support for Biden, these figures point to a significant shift of partisan loyalty within communities that have been overwhelmingly Democratic. In political terms, their shift signals a potential realignment.
For over 70 years, America has been in what could be termed a period of dealignment. Starting with Eisenhower’s 1952 presidential victory, America’s two parties have alternated presidential power with striking regularity. In 18 elections, only once has a party held the White House more than two terms (Republicans winning in 1980, 1984, and 1988), and only twice has a party held it for only a single term (Democrats from 1977-1981 and Republicans from 2017-2021).
Assuredly, these alternating presidential periods have not equated to total federal power shifts. Democrats’ control of Congress extended well beyond its lock on the presidency, and there have been several instances since 1994, when Republicans broke through Democrats’ congressional dominance, that presidential and congressional control have conflicted. Nonetheless, for seven decades, America has seen an amazingly consistent alternating of the federal government’s primary power: the presidency.
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