President Donald Trump has done what no other Republican non-incumbent has accomplished in modern politics, scoring wins in the opening contests of Iowa and New Hampshire. And he scored both with more than 50% of the vote, without participating in a single debate and while facing the political machinery of two popular incumbent governors who threw their support to his competitors.
His lone remaining major competitor, Nikki Haley, tried to sound like a winner Tuesday despite trailing by about 10 to 12 points as the evening treaded on.
But even in that handy defeat, Haley’s showing was somewhat a political mirage. Exit polling showed she captured only about a quarter of registered Republicans who cast ballots.
Her strength? Independent or unaffiliated voters – some who lean Democrat – crossed over because Joe Biden chose not to appear on the New Hampshire ballot, giving his supporters a chance to try to run up Haley’s total and embarrass Trump.
Historical voting trends show just how big that crossover vote might have been. In the last competitive New Hampshire GOP primary in 2016, about 280,000 voters cast ballots. On Tuesday, the total GOP primary vote was projected to have set a record that could fall between 310,000 to 325,000 voters.
The last competitive Democrat primary in 2020, which Joe Biden lost, drew about 300,000 votes. On Tuesday, the Democrat primary was expected to draw less than 100,000 voters. The possibility of crossover vote was high, pollsters said, and exit polls showed about 6% of Tuesday’s GOP primary voters identified as Democrat.
One such voter told CNN that he voted for Haley to oppose Trump but planned on voting for Biden in the fall.
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ELECTION 2024 COUNTDOWN
