“Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They’re wrong,” proclaimed an NBC headline this past December. Citing “new FBI data,” the outlet was essentially telling Americans that they shouldn’t believe their lyin’ eyes. But, it turns out, it’s the data themselves that may be deceptive.
This is the conclusion of the Coalition for Law Order & Safety, an independent group of law enforcement officials and analysts. In their April 2024 report, “Assessing America’s Crime Crisis: Trends, Causes, and Consequences,” they identify “four potential causes for the increase in crime in most major cities across the U.S.: de-policing, de-carceration, de-prosecution and politicization of the criminal justice system,” related Fox News Monday.
Even insofar as crime may in certain respects be down from 2020 levels, say the analysts, this is deceptive because that year saw a historic spike in criminality. Yet, can we really know if crime has dropped at all given the data’s unreliability? As Fox explains:
Through aggregated data sets directly from more than 70 of the nation’s largest police departments and victim surveys, researchers claim violent crime has been “substantially elevated in major cities” compared to pre-2020 levels. The group’s research also showed that due to significant under-reporting of certain crimes, the FBI’s official data doesn’t completely capture the full snapshot of crime in the U.S.
“There’s a series of caveats attached to the FBI data that the FBI doesn’t make as clear as they should,” Sean Kennedy, one of the lead researchers, told Fox News Digital in an interview.
Kennedy said that, particularly in the aftermath of the 2020 George Floyd riots, several police departments redefined the classifications for certain violent crimes and transitioned away from a decades-old recording system.
“If you classify something as an aggravated assault, it’s a violent crime or a felony, but if you classify it as a simple assault, it’s then a misdemeanor and a non-violent crime,” Kennedy said. “That is a world of difference when it comes to how the media is going to portray whether or not your department is fighting violent crime.”
However, the police are not the only ones appearing to under-report. Businesses and individuals who are victims of violent crimes have also shown a pattern of reluctance when it comes to calling the police. The Loss Prevention Research Council’s survey of retailers sheds light on the reasons behind the lack of reporting. The study shows that typically, business owners tend to harbor the belief that police will not respond promptly or investigate crimes, and prosecutors will not pursue charges against the perpetrators.
I can vouch for this personally. I lived in the Bronx till age 28, and off the top of my head can think of three somewhat valuable items that were stolen from my family but which we never reported to police. We knew it would be futile.
God Bless You and Your Families!
Love,
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