Four little-noticed trends that suggest Trump could have an edge in November- Sharyl Attkisson
lmost all recent national polling has showed President Trump consistently behind Joe Biden. According to RealClearPolitics, which uses averages of released polls, Biden remains up in the national polls, the battleground states, and even the betting odds. The current electoral count at RealClearPolitics stands at 115 for Trump, 212 for Biden and 211 tossups, with 270 votes needed to win.
Do these statistics imply a Biden wave on Nov. 3? Or are we seeing a repeat of 2016 when almost nobody predicted Trump would — or even could — win?
There are four little-discussed trends that worry Biden supporters:
1. Betting Odds
Gamblers are giving Biden the edge over Trump: 50.7% to 48.3%. But a look at the trend line shows a large decline for Biden and a comeback for Trump from just 30 days ago. On Aug. 1, the odds were 61% for Biden and 36.4% for Trump.
2. Top Battleground States
With the exception of North Carolina, which is a virtual tie, the RealClearPolitics average shows Biden ahead in every other key battleground state. When averaged together, Biden is up over Trump 48% to 45.3% in six states: Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Arizona.
The concern for the Biden camp comes with a comparison to 2016. Although Trump is on the losing end right now, his position is actually slightly ahead of where he was in the battleground states in 2016. Explained another way: Hillary Clinton was beating Trump more in the battleground states in 2016 than Joe Biden is now — and we know Trump actually won in 2016. So does the current trend imply an even larger Trump win?