Pollster who predicted 2016 election says Donald Trump is on track to win again with the help of ‘hidden’ support from quiet voters who don’t do polls

Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly says Trump is likely to be re-elected with the help of his ‘hidden support’
Cahaly says the latest Trafalgar polls show Trump in a slight lead in key states including Michigan, Florida, Arizona, and Ohio
He says that the polls dont account for ‘shy Trump voters’ who don’t participate in surveys and are quiet in their support of Trump for fear of backlash
In 2016 the group was one of few that showed Trump leading in Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan on the eve of voting day, which Trump later won

By MARLENE LENTHANG | PUBLISHED: 01:59 EDT, 21 October 2020 | UPDATED: 10:49 EDT, 21 October 2020

The pollster who predicted the 2016 election result says Donald Trump is on track to win the presidency again bolstered by his ‘hidden’ support.

Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly says Trump is likely to be re-elected based off polls from this month that show him in a slight lead in key states.

Cahaly says those polls don’t include Trump’s ‘hidden’ fans who do not want to identify themselves by participating in polls for fear of retribution for supporting Trump.

‘I see the president winning with a minimum [electoral vote count in the] high 270s and possibly going up significantly higher based on just how big this undercurrent is,’ Cahaly said on Hannity on Fox News Tuesday night.

Cahaly also told Politico that he asks how respondents expect their neighbors to vote rather than how they will vote themselves on the basis that they are more likely to express their own views when asked obliquely.

The answers are fed through what Cahaly says is a proprietary algorithm which further adjusts the results.

The technique was first used by Trafalgar in the 2016 primary season, and Cahaly says that allowed his firm to search for new or long-dormant voters who were backing Trump but who other firms did not seek out, and who helped boost Trump’s vote.

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