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A Closer look at US 2020 Mortality Data

According to the CDC, the United States of America lost 3,358,814 of its citizens in 2020, an age-adjusted increase of 15.9% compared to 2019.

September 13, 2021

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For the CDC, the reason for this increase is apparently self-evident and clear : COVID-19, which “has become the third leading cause of death.”

But – is this true or even likely?

Let us compare the age distribution of the deaths in the whole population to the one in the group whose deaths were attributed to COVID-19. The numbers are the CDC’s, the calculation of percentages is straightforward (Number per age group / Total number * 100):

Like everywhere else in the world, the group (cohort) of people who died “of or with COVID-19” reached an average age similar to (even a little higher than) the general population.

This is what the age distributions look like graphically:

Like everywhere else in the world (see my recent article), the coronavirus (or – rather – the positive PCR test) looks very much like a random variable with regards to the observed result “death” – like athlete’s foot, like wearing red socks, like any other common cold virus.

Given that, after almost a year of mass testing, the cohort of PCR-test positives can certainly be considered a representative sample of the general population (with perhaps the only exception of the very young), this is what every statistician and epidemiologist worth his or her salt would have to conclude: The positive Corona-test is a random variable in relation to the observed result “death“.

To put it differently – why should the cohort of Corona test-positives reach a higher average age than the rest of the population, which characteristic would grant this particular cohort a longer than average lifespan?

Of course, severe forms of respiratory infections caused by/with SARS-CoV-2 do exist. Of course, our medical institutions must treat, help and support, to the best of their knowledge and capabilities, each and every one of the people affected. Of course, individual cases can be heart-breaking. Of course, hospital capacities may be stretched during flu seasons (they generally are).

On average, however, the “COVID-19 deaths” would have left this world at the same time, with Corona or from/with another virus or another disease. (In fact, a high number of them did probably die of something else than COVID-19.)  We are not immortal. On average, we die at our average age of death.

As a group, the COVID-19 deaths are part of nor….

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